Project parameters

AP19676895 «Казахи как демографический потенциал Казахстана: ретроспектива и перспективы развития»

 

Kazakhs as the Demographic Potential of Kazakhstan: Retrospective and Development

Prospects Relevance

Of paramount importance in the formation of the demographic system of sovereign Kazakhstan is the fact that the algorithm of its development is determined by representatives of the Kazakh ethnic group. Therefore, it becomes relevant to identify the demographic characteristics of the Kazakhs in a historical retrospective The combination of socio-economic, socio-cultural vectors of development in the 1950s and 60s caused a demographic explosion of the Kazakhs, which still has an impact on modern demographic processes. At the same time, at the beginning of the 21st century, determinants of demographic development are emerging that can determine the situation in the long term. As a result, the inertia of the consequences of the population explosion of the mid-twentieth century coincides with the manifestations of the population explosion of the early twenty-first century in time, reflecting the essence of the sovereign development of Kazakhstan and forming the potential of a new demographic system.

The aim of the project is to identify the parameters and potential of the demographic development of Kazakhstan, based on the socio-cultural preferences of the Kazakh ethnic group, formed in the 20th-early 21st centuries, manifested in the interaction of the population explosions of the 1950-1960s and 2000s.

Expected results

1. Expected scientific results:

1) the influence of demographic catastrophes of the 1920s-1930s on the socio-demographic processes of the Kazakh ethnic group has been studied;

2) the causes and features of the demographic explosion of Kazakhs in the 1950s and 1960s are investigated.

3) the socio-cultural attitudes of the representatives of the demographic explosion generation of the 1950s and 1960s and their children born in the 1970s and 1980s were studied through anamnestic research.

4) the influence of the socio-demographic policy of the state on the development of the Kazakh ethnic group in the second half of the XX century is analyzed.

5) the influence of "demographic waves" caused by the high natural growth of the Kazakh population in the 1950s-1980s on modern demographic processes has been studied.

6) the phenomenon of the demographic explosion of Kazakhs at the beginning of the XXI century in the new socio-cultural and socio-economic realities is studied.

7) the assessment of the current state and potential of demographic development of the Kazakh ethnic group: regional features of population dynamics, urbanization and settlement system, evolution of age structure, socio-cultural attitudes, population aging, migration processes is given.

8) analytical reports have been prepared based on the results of anamnestic, sociological research and content analysis of the media.

9)  socio-cultural portraits of representatives of three generations of Kazakhs have been developed: those born in the 1930s-1940s, 1950s-1960s and 1970s-1980s.

10) publication of at least 2 (two) articles and (or) reviews in peer-reviewed foreign and (or) domestic publications recommended by the Committee for Control in Education and Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan; at least two articles in collections of International Scientific Conference.

11) publication of at least two articles and (or) reviews in peer-reviewed scientific publications indexed in the Arts and Humanities Citation Index of the Web of Science database (in one of the journals: European Journal of Population, Demographic Research or in another journal that meets the requirements of the project's tender documentation).

12) publication of the monograph "Demographic explosions in Kazakhstan: historical experience and modern potential"

2. Expected scientific and organizational results:

13) multilingual web platform for storing, presenting and popularizing project results (statistical and analytical data, sociological and anamnestic materials, scientific publications).

14) scientific and methodological webinars for discussion and presentation of the obtained scientific results.

15) educational content «Using the "Tableau" software for analysis and visualization of statistical data».

16) participation in regional, national and/or international scientific events.

Achieved results for 2023:

On October 26, 2023, the republican scientific and practical webinar "Sociological measurement of demographic processes: the potential of comparative studies" was held Link: http://demography.kz/ru/news/nauchno-prakticheskii-vebinar/

On November10, 2023, therepublicanscientific and methodologicalwebinar"The impact of demographiccatastrophes of the 1920s-1930son the socio-demographicprocesses of the Kazakhethnic group" was held Link:/newsevents/vebinar-kazakhstan-v-epohu-demograficheskih-peremen.aspx

Thefirstsection of the monograph"DemographicexplosionsinKazakhstan:historicalexperienceandmodernpotential" was prepared Theeducationalcontent"UsingTableau software for the analysisandvisualization of statisticaldata" has been developed.

The content analysis of Kazakhstan's central (newspapers Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, Socialist Kazakhstan) and regional (newspapers Rudny Altai, Communism tuy) newspapers was carried out The media of the period of the 1950s-1980s, during which the reflection in the periodical press of the socio-cultural and socio-economic causes and conditions of the demographic explosion of the Kazakhs in the 1950s-1960s, its consequences and results in the 1970s-1980s were studied. The results are reflected in the analytical report.

 

Scientific publications for 2023:

  1. Aubakirova Zh. S., Sarsembayeva G.A., Stolyarova E. O., Krasnobaeva N. L., Alekseenko A. N. Reflection in the media of social conditions of demographic development of Kazakhs in 1950-1980. (content analysis of the Republican and regional periodicals). Analytical report. -Ust-Kamenogorsk: Media Alliance Publishing House, 2023. - 185 P. (In Russian)
  2. Махметова Н.А., Аубакирова Ж.С. Шығыс Қазақстанда халықтың қартаюы мен өлім үдерістеріндегі өзгерістер (1999-2021 жж.) // Абай атындағы ҚазҰПУ-нің ХАБАРШЫСЫ. «Тарих және саяси-әлеуметтік ғылымдар» сериясы. 2023. - №3(78). – 333-342 бб.(In Kazakh)
  3. Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A.N. The impact of migration on the number and ethnic composition of the population of Kazakhstan in the XX century (1987-1991)) / / Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXII International Scientific and Practical Conference, September 25-26, 2023 - Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2023. – pp.30-40 (In Russian)
  4. E. Stolyarova.O. Priorities of upbringing and education of children (results of a sociological survey of students of Kazakhstani universities) / / Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXII International Scientific and Practical Conference, September 25-26, 2023 - Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2023. - pp.398-408. (In Russian)
  5. Sarsembayeva G.A. The causes and features of the demographic explosion of Kazakhs in the 1950s and 1960s: content analysis of media publications / / Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXII International Scientific and Practical Conference, September 25-26, 2023 - Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2023. - pp.372-383. (In Russian)
  6. Krasnobaeva N.L. Ualieva S.K. Reflection in publications in the media of the East Kazakhstan region of the topic "large families" (50-80-ies of the XX century) // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXII International Scientific and Practical Conference, September 25-26, 2023 - Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2023. - pp.253-263. (In Russian)

Achieved results for 2024:

1. Aspart of the firststage of the anamnesticsociologicalstudy"Socio-cultural conditions of socialization of Kazakhs of differentgenerationsin the context of demographicevents of 1950-1980", asurvey was conducted of representatives of the generation of the "firstdemographicexplosion"(born in the 1950s and 1960s)andrepresentatives of the "children of the generation of the firstdemographicexplosion"(born in the 1970s and 1980s). A total of 100peoplewereinterviewed,including62womenand38men.40respondents belong to the generation of the "firstdemographicexplosion", 60respondentsbelong to the "children of the generation of the first demographic explosion".

 Allregions of the country are representedin the study:north(KostanayandNorthKazakhstanregions),south(Zhambylregion),east(AbaiandEastKazakhstanregions),west(AktobeandAtyrauregions),center(KaragandaandUlytauregions),cities of republicansignificanceAstana,Shymkent,Almaty.Allrespondentscurrentlyliveeitherinregionalcentersorincities of nationalsignificance,but the vastmajority of respondentsretaintieswith the countryside–either they arenatives of it,ortheirparentscomefrom the village.

Thus, the life trajectories of the respondents of these generations illustrate the process of transition of the Kazakh ethnic group from rural to urban lifestyle. The materials were collected in the format of semi-formal interviews in offline and online mode, due to the wide coverage of the regions.

 The use of a specializedprogramforvideoconferences(Zoom) made it possible to savedata(videoandaudiorecordings),whichweresubsequentlytranscribedintowrittentext. The analysis of the researchresults is based on bothtranscription of interviewsandaudio recordings (ifthere was a need to clarifyintonationmeanings).

Anamnestic materials were collected, digital data processing was performed (transcription of audio and video recordings of interviews, development of an analysis layout for 8 blocks, systematization of data, creation of a database of audio-video visual data). Based on the results of anamnestic sociological research, an analytical report has been prepared (posted on the project's website: https://demographics.kz/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/anamnesticheskoe-i-socziologicheskoe-issled-2024-god.pdf

Stolyarova E. O., Sarsembayeva G. A., Krasnobaeva N. L., Aubakirova J. S., Alekseenko A. N. Sociocultural conditions of socialization of Kazakhs of different generations in the context of demographic events of the 1950s-1980s. Analytical report on the results of anamnestic sociological research. – Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2024. – 164 p.

Sociocultural portraits of representatives of generations of Kazakhs were developed: those born in the 1950s-1960s, 1970s-1980s. Posted on the website: https://demographics.kz/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/soczialnye-portrety.pdf

On the basis of historicalandstatisticalmaterials, 1chapter of the monographon the topic of the project"KazakhstaninSoviethistory(1920-1990)" was written.

On September 27, 2024, a scientific and methodological webinar "Demographic explosion of Kazakhs in the second half of the XX century: causes and consequences" was held. The interim results of the implementation of the grant scientific project were presented at it:

- Aubakirova Zh. S., Omirzak T. E. "Ethnic characteristics of fertility in Kazakhstan in the middle of the XX century";

 - Sarsembayeva G. A. "Socio-demographic policy of the USSR in the 1950s-70s. (using the example of Kazakhstan)";

- Krasnobaeva N. L. "Periodical press in Kazakhstan (1950-1980): reflection of socio-cultural transformations and demographic processes";

-StolyarovaE.O."Transformation of publicsentimentin1950-1970anditsreflectionin the periodicalpress".

https://demographics.kz/privet-mir/

/newsevents/v-stenah-gosudarstvennogo-tekhnicheskogo-universiteta-proshel-vebinar-s-uchastiem-zarubezhnyh-uchenyh.aspx

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YPRC1y0bcd1ZgX9PkA70AwoIYUiZjOln/view?usp=sharing  (link to thevideo of the webinar).

The interim results of the project are published in the collection of scientific papers of the XXIII International scientific and practical conference "Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories" (December 04, 2024).

2. Within the frameworkof the project, AubakirovaZh. ,KrasnobaevaN.L.,OmirzakT.E.,SarsembayevaG.A.in the periodfromMay20toJune7, 2024, they completed a scientificinternshipat the Center for Research of Russia, the Caucasus,EasternEuropeandCentralAsia(CERCECCNRS-EHESS)and the NationalInstitute of DemographicResearchat the National the Center for ScientificResearch of France(Paris).

In the course of the work, the results of historical and demographicstudiesaccumulated by the NationalCenter for ScientificResearch of Francewerestudied.Consultations were held with well-knownFrenchscientistsAlanBlum,MichelGuillot,MarcElieandIsabelleOayon, whose researchinterestscover a widearea of knowledge of SocialScienceandDigitalHumanities.

The interim results of the scientific project were discussed at the scientific site of the National Center for Scientific Research of France. The discussion was attended by doctoral and undergraduate students of the National Center for Scientific Research of France. The presented digital tools were highly appreciated by French colleagues (http://statdata.info; https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/altaytanu/vizzes  ), developed with a grant from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education. Certificates of internship have been received. /newsevents/nauchnye-sotrudniki-vktu-uspeshno-proshli-zarubezhnuyu-stazhirovku-v-nacionalnom-centre-nauchnyh-issledovanij-francii.aspx

On April 14, 2024, the results of the project were presented at the seminar "Demographic development of Kazakhstan in the late XX — early XXI centuries. (state and problems)", organized by the International Laboratory for Population and Health Research of the Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russian Federation) /newsevents/uchenye-vktu-vystupili-na-moskovskoj-nauchnoj-ploshchadke.aspx

On April 19, 20024, the project's research group took part in the VIII International Scientific and Practical Conference "Russia, Siberia and Central Asia: Interaction of Peoples and Cultures", organized jointly with Altai State Pedagogical University (Barnaul, Russian Federation) and N. Khusrav Bokhtar State University (Bokhtar, Republic of Tajikistan) /newsevents/mnic-dsr-ot-lica-vktu-vystupil-v-kachestve-soorganizatora-viii-mezhdunarodnoj-nauchno-prakticheskoj-konferencii.aspx  

On May 21-22, 2024, J. S. Aubakirova spoke at the DTAS 2024 International Conference (the conference serves as a platform for scientists, teachers and experts to share research results, promising developments, innovations and expert opinions on the current development and growing challenges in the social sciences and humanitarian scientific knowledge) with a report "The use of IT technologies in demographic research (using the example of a demographic information portal statdata.info and interactive demographic maps)". https://ru.astconsortium.org/dtas  (certificate).

From July 17 to 20, 2024, at the International Expert Forum "The Slavic-Turkic World in the Greater Altai: History and Modernity" (Barnaul, Russia), the results of media content analysis were presented, the topic of the speech by N. L. Krasnobaeva was "Periodical printing in Kazakhstan (1950-1980): socio-cultural transformations and demographic processes". https://bolshoy-altay.asu.ru/upload/iblock/360/od1mn6eit00m235emkwfqaqcigzxll5w/Programma-Forum-17_20-iyulya-2024.pdf

From October 25 to 26, 2024, within the framework of the project, A.N. Alekseenko and J.S. Aubakirova took part in the Fifth International Scientific Conference "Ethnic Minorities in the History of Russia" (St. Petersburg, Russia) and made a report "Demographic consequences of sedentarization and collectivization in Kazakhstan in the 30s of the twentieth century" https://lengu.ru/conference/view?id=570

3. Amultilingualwebresource has been developed forstoring,presentingandpopularizingstatisticalandanalyticaldata,anamnesticandsociologicalWebresource:https://demographics.kz

The site contains information about the project (relevance, purpose, objectives, research staff – members of the research group), news feed, publications, research products (analytical report on media content analysis materials, analytical report on the results of anamnestic sociological research, socio-cultural portraits), archive of media content analysis materials, visualization of statistical analysis results analysis, regulatory documents (on the basis of which the system of social institutions was formed – education, healthcare, etc., as well as determining changes in the situation of the rural population in Kazakhstan), links to Internet resources used in the process of implementing the project.

Scientific publications for 2024:

  1. Aubakirova Zh., Nogaibayev Y., Ualiyeva S., Stolyarova E., Krasnobaeva N. Regional fertility characteristics of urban population of Kazakhstan at the end of the 20th–first quarter of the 21st centuries // Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development 2024, 8(12), 8948. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8948 имеющем процентиль по CiteScore в базе Scopus 43, Q2. (In English)
  2. Aubakirova Zh.S., Makhmetova N.A. Ualieva S.K., T. Omelchenko.E., Alekseenko A.N. Ethnic features of settlement in Kazakhstan in the middle of the XX century. // / Bulletin of archeology, anthropology and ethnography. Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science, Federal Research Center, Tyumen Scientific Center of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – № 2 (65). – 2024. – pp.203-214. https://doi.org/10.20874/2071-0437-2024-65-2-18  CiteScore in the Scopus 60, percentile Q2. (In Russian)
  3. Stolyarova. O., Aubakirova Zh. S., Krasnobaeva N. L. The religious factor in the families of students of Kazakhstani universities (according to the results of a sociological study)//Russia, Siberia and Central Asia: interaction of peoples and cultures: materials of the VIII International Scientific and Practical Conference "Russia, Siberia and Central Asia: interaction of peoples and cultures" and a round table with international participation "Central Asian countries in the system of regional and international relations in the XIX-XX centuries/ Ed.RA Ist. sciences, prof. V. A. Barmina. Barnaul: AltSU, 2024. – pp. 369-373. (In Russian)
  4. Krasnobaeva N. L. Demographic development of Russians in Kazakhstan at the beginning of the XXI century // Russia, Siberia and Central Asia: interaction of peoples and cultures: materials of the VIII International scientific and practical conference "Russia, Siberia and Central Asia: interaction of peoples and cultures" and a round table with international participation "Central Asian countries in the system regional and international relations in the XIX–XXI centuries. - Barnaul: AltGPU, 2024. – pp. 197-201. (In Russian)
  5. Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A.N., Krasnobaeva N.L., Stolyarova E.O. demographic and socio-economic vectors of development of Kazakhstan at the beginning of the XXI // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXIII International Scientific and Practical Conference, December 4-5, 2024 - Ust-Kamenogorsk. - 2024. – pp.33-40. (In Russian)
  6. Krasnobaeva N. L. Regional features of socio-demographic development of Kazakhstan in the 50-80s of the XX century // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXIII International Scientific and Practical Conference, December 4-5, 2024 - Ust-Kamenogorsk. - 2024. – pp.159-164. (In Russian)
  7. Sarsembayeva G. A. Socio-demographic aspects of the development of the USSR in 1950-1960: on the issue of the main factors of increasing fertility // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXIII International Scientific and Practical Conference, December 4-5, 2024 - Ust-Kamenogorsk. - 2024. – pp.196-204. (In Russian)
  8. Stolyarova. O., Aubakirova Zh. S., Krasnobaeva N. L. Transformation of public sentiment in 1950-1980 and its reflection in the periodical press of Kazakhstan // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific papers of the XXIII International Scientific and Practical Conference, December 4-5, 2024 - Ust-Kamenogorsk. - 2024. – pp.204-210. (In Russian)